Daily Homicides in Mexico Decline 37% In President Sheinbaum, According to Government Statistics

The typical count of everyday homicides monthly in Mexico has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per new government statistics. However, public safety analysts have advised that homicide numbers could fail to indicate enhanced national stability.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidency in the previous September. This data was delivered by the chief of the country’s national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that have been recorded during these months is remarkably notable,” the President remarked, explaining that the previous month the lowest figure of homicides were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Violent cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s heavily military operations to combat the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent times. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a murder rate over 4x higher than the United States. However, murders have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security strategy for an seemingly steeper decline in homicides this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President stated: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring town by town in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The key components of Sheinbaum’s security plan involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation work.
• Greater collaboration between government agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety researchers warned that focusing solely on murder statistics to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is especially true considering the increase in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“It would be positive news if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer reliable for estimating the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the desire to properly recognize and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of everyday killings was also concerning because it could obscure periods when there were notably elevated levels of murders.

“Relying on the per-day mean renders high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, per government figures. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains beset by severe bloodshed, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-driven violence. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the last year.

A short time later, many thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the country to voice their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to construct a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” the analyst concluded.