Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
