Keir Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Process

Several members on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.