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Just 48 hours before the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – going beyond the winner overall, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, devoted more than ten years in left-leaning activism and emerged as a kind of well-known figure this year for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

What was your election night?

It was necessary because they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the system frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of votes added after that and his lead went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible in which yesterday turned out somewhat badly for him, where Cuomo was going to end up basically increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained half a million votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse, youthful, renters and residents struggling with costs

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously went for the progressive now. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

A major development of the election was the record participation. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than anticipated. I figured we might go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to get over half. He has just over 50% but remain probably 200,000 votes uncounted as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it because afterwards no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump area. That truly surprised me. Cuomo kept very white areas, affluent zones and devout communities, and plus gained all of these Republicans on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I think occurred a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it before the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for the candidate dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

I think there was some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and homeowners all went for Cuomo. Thus there was some opposition. But no, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election we reported on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Likewise in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were strongly supportive. So I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but he retained left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that key political leaders from the left hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see more of that – people will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that every city in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in America – because youth reside there, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.